Friday, March 7, 2008

Electoral math

This is something that has come up again and again, especially as the delegates have been close in the Democratic race. Based on the primaries to date and the vote in 2004, here is the breakdown I see so far (the percentages won't add up to 100%, they are my guess to each candidate's chance of winning that state):
StateECObamaClintonMcCain
AK345%*45%55%
AL955%*35%50%
AR625%45%*60%
AZ1025%25%*75%*
CA5570%75%*30%*
CN780%*75%10%*
CO955%*50%50%
DC399%*95%5%*
DE390%*80%5%*
FL2750%55%**50%*
GA1550%*30%55%
HI499%*95%5%
IA755%*50%40%
ID455%*30%60%
IL2199%*95%10%*
IN1140%65%
KS650%*40%60%
KY825%75%
LA957%*49%50%
MA1295%99%*5%
MD1060%*60%40%*
ME490%*90%10%
MI1750%55%***50%
MN1065%*60%45%
MO1151%*50%50%*
MS645%*25%60%
MT310%90%
NC1545%40%60%
ND320%*10%75%
NE540%*30%65%
NH455%60%*50%*
NJ1575%80%*20%*
NM545%45%*60%
NV548%50%*60%
NY3190%99%*10%*
OH2045%55%*50%*
OK735%40%*65%*
OR765%30%
PA2150%55%50%
RI485%90%*10%*
SC345%*35%55%*
SD310%80%
TN1145%50%*60%
TX3445%44%55%*
UT515%*10%90%
VT399%*99%1%*
VA1355%*50%50%*
WA1180%*75%20%*
WS1060%*55%40%*
WV540%45%60%
WY330%10%90%

* - won by candidate
** - no candidates campaigned after mid 2007
*** - Only candidate on the ballot still in the race

Summary: I'm pretty sure, just going back over the percents I put up there, the primaries have slanted these numbers in the favor of the Democrats. Anything 60% or greater is almost guaranteed for that candidate, 40% - 59% are states that will have to be fought over, and less than 40% is not likely. For electoral votes this gives: Obama has 203 mostly guaranteed, 152 with a better than even chance and 123 that may be fought for; Clinton has 204 mostly guaranteed, 151 with a better than even chance and 101 that may be fought for; McCain has 121 mostly guaranteed, 195 with a better than even chance and 37 that may be fought for. This definitely gives the Democrat an advantage in the upcoming general election and gives Obama a slight edge by bringing more states in play.

What worries me the most is how the numbers from the primary turnouts will change depending on the candidate chosen by the Democrats. Obama has been able to get people to turn out that almost never do, especially not for primaries and caucuses - the young and the african-americans. Clinton has very strong support among women, many of whom may see the selection of Obama as a slight against women and may not turn out themselves, or may go the way so-called "security moms" have gone in the past and vote for the Republican.

What I believe, more than anything, is that both candidates need to work together if we want to win in November. The smear tactics that have been going on lately in the Democratic race need to stop. It will only weaken our position come November, and throwing this clear opportunity away would hurt us more than anything.

3 comments:

Comrade Kevin said...

It would be an interesting race here in Alabama, for sure.

Obama would draw out all of the African-American vote including most younger blacks who don't consistently vote. Obama would draw out white liberals as well.

But McCain would be a formidable foe because this is still a solidly red state that has not gone blue since 1976, and only then narrowly because Carter was from Georgia and a fellow southerner.

Mauigirl said...

Interesting analysis. And I totally agree that Obama can draw out more voters than Clinton.

Diane said...

I agree with Mauigirl. but then, there are people who don't want to draw out more people. I do believe that there are people who actively want to depress voter turnout.