Wednesday, May 7, 2008

IN/NC Results

After an incredibly idiotic, drawn out wait for Lake County Indiana to turn in it's results, we have some good final numbers. I guess that is sort of fitting after the long, drawn out race it is part of. Congratulations to Sen. Clinton on her Indiana win and to Sen. Obama on North Carolina.

Here is how the numbers turned out (per CNN): North Carolina - Obama won by 14%, almost 233,000 votes, and gained roughly 16 delegates. Indiana - Clinton won by 2%, a little bit more than 18,000 votes, and she gained roughly 2 delegates. Total last night went overwhelmingly to Obama, gaining more than 210,000 in the popular vote count and 14 delegates.

For the race at large, this puts Obama soundly in the lead on all counts: 1592 pledged delegates to 1421, 1844 total delegates to 1687, 15,088,235 (15,657,276 with Florida) (15,895,038 with FL and Michigan's 40% undecided) popular vote to 14,618,762 (15,475,970 with FL) (15,804,121 with MI and FL) and 13 to 1 in the caucuses. To catch up in pledged delegates, Sen. Clinton now needs 89% of the remaining delegates. If you add Florida in, that cuts Obama's delegate lead by about 30 (assuming all 211 state delegates are pledged, which they aren't), meaning Clinton would need 82% of the remaining delegates. With Michigan added (giving Obama the undecideds again), Obama's lead is cut by a bit more than 60 pledged (same caveat as with Florida's delegates) and Clinton needs only 60% of the remaining votes.

With all this, of course, we need to take into account the super delegates and the target delegate count. With Obama's current delegate total, he is now within 181 delegates of the "magic number." Clinton is still 338 away. This means, according to CNN's undeclared super delegate count of 277, Obama is soundly inside of the number required to be handed the nomination.

This race is effectively over. Senator Clinton has run a very strong race. She has been a tough and tenacious opponent and I congratulate her. But now, more than ever, it is time for us to come together as a party in preparation for November. Obama very clearly articulated what we will be up against in the coming months. We must be unified to face the onslaught of lies and swift-boat attacks the Republican machine is guaranteed to throw against us. If we do not unify, they will use our divisions to try to drive us further apart. Our country and our world cannot be handed another four years of the policies of George W. Bush. As Obama said "We can't afford to give John McCain the chance to serve out George Bush's third term."


your pal said...

By extrapolating results, it looks like Obama will get the nomination.

But his best bet is to have Hillary join him as his VP running mate.

There is no other Dem VP alternative able to pull in the votes Obama would need to beat McCain.

Without her on his team, his campaign will collapse when his 20-year affiliation with screwball Wright becomes the centerpiece of attacks upon him.

Obama has to hope Wright takes a vacation till election day.

KBO said...

I respectfully disagree. I think there are plenty of people who can pull in the votes. Kathleen Sebelius comes to mind. I wish John Edwards would VP, but I doubt he will.

Plus, Hillary is not really earning much respect by dragging this out. She has the right to: I respect that. But math is a pesky thing, and unless they mutually agree to run the rest of the primary campaign without trying to drag each other through the mud, it's going to continue to hurt a Dem's chance to beat McCain. And that's a very telling action, if you ask me.

What will REALLY piss me off is if superdelegates go against the popular vote. That will really cry "elitist" for those who throw around that term, and alienate many, many voters.

John J. said...

Without her on his team, he will not be able to pull the party together, but that doesn't mean she has to be his running mate. Personally, after the way her campaign has been run so far, neither could really be the other's running mate without hypocrisy issues. Obama has run on "new politics" and breaking from the old way of running for office, while Clinton has relied on large dollar donors and lobbyists and PACs and has, especially for the past couple months campaigned using personal attacks on her opponent instead of his/her policies. Similarly, Clinton has already run into issues hinting that she would offer Obama the VP after her comments that he isn't "ready on day one."

As far as my choice for VP, I already made my opinion known and after watching her last night on CNN I feel I should re-affirm - Donna Brazile for Vice President!

your pal said...

kbo, to Hillary supporters, she is doing what they expect. Even though you think she's dragging things out, her current actions will be forgotten in a matter of days after a nominee is picked.

Presumably Obama will become the nominee. If Hillary is NOT Obama's running mate, she will disappear almost as fast as the other contenders did. I'm sure you realize that John Edwards and the other early contestants are gone from the scene. No one even suggests they should join Obama on the ticket.

She is Obama's best hope for winning in November. Without her on the ticket he'll lose in a landslide.

your pal said...

john j,

Donna Brazile??!!

She has a knack for supporting losing candidates. If she were added to Obama's ticket the odds-makers would figure he's got one chance in 10 to win.

Then she has the stigma of claiming Bush 41 was having an affair. Her claim backfired and she resigned from the Dukakis campaign.

Furthermore, Obama has enough problems convincing voters he's got the experience to lead the country. Brazile has ZERO experience in elective office and really has no relevant experience of any form. She brings NOTHING to help Obama win.

These days she's a media gasbag, like several other people who wouldn't stand a chance with voters.

If Obama picked her, it would prove his campaign had self-destructed.