Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Pennsylvania Round-up

First of all, let me congratulate Sen. Clinton on a fight successfully fought. She got the double digit win that gives her an excuse to continue what many believe will turn out to be a debacle. Not to steal too much from my wife's secret lover, "I CALLED IT!" (I would run around the office, but people might look at me oddly).

Unfortunately for Hillary, even with this victory her odds just got even slimmer. As I said in that previous post, since Ohio, etc. Clinton needed to win by 65% or better to tie in pledged delegates. Getting 10% less than that has raised that margin to just over 68% (she needs 279 of the remaining 408 pledged to catch up to Obama's total.) If she loses even one of the remaining contests, or even just ties in North Carolina, she will need upwards of 75% in the few contests left.

A counterbalance to this is that Sen. Obama's chances of reaching the 2024 delegates without any new super delegate votes is much slimmer now also. He needs somewhere around 299 of the remaining delegates, 73%. However, the most relevant numbers - popular vote, pledged delegates, total delegates, and contests won - are at the very least mathematically impossible if not completely impossible to overcome.

As for the question I hear time and again "Why can't Obama 'close the deal'?" there are two valid responses. One, turn the question on its head - Why can't Clinton beat this 'rookie' senator from Illinois? Two, really a corollary of the first, Obama has to go against 60 to 40 polls against him in all of these states, he has to compete against 16 or more years of popular inertia Clinton has behind her, and he has to compete against not just Hillary Clinton, but also Bill Clinton and his incumbency and John McCain and the Republican party (which has already realized what the Clintons won't admit). Having to fight against the "silly season politics" coming from all three fronts is a bit much for anyone and it's amazing that he has done as well as he has.

Good luck to both candidates and PLEASE STOP WITH THE NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNS. If you want to criticize the other's policies, that's one thing; give us the strengths of your policies vs. the other's. I could care less about someone who served on the same board for three months, or who was pardoned by a spouse. Talk about your differences on the economy, on health care, on globalization, and the United State's position in the world.

GIVE VOTERS SOMEONE TO VOTE FOR FOR A CHANGE. The only choice I have had since I reached voting age is to vote against someone and pick someone less bad (the reason I didn't even bother voting in 2000). Let's make this election different.

3 comments:

FranIAm said...

You know how I feel about this whole mess.

I am really disheartened by her and her activities.

To which I usually add, which is not a ringing endorsement of...

But you know that already.

Today I read an article that says the race card might be a factor for Obama.

We are so screwed.

Mauigirl said...

Well said, John. It is indeed a mess, as Fran says.

I don't think anyone ever thought the race issue wouldn't be a factor. I think until the current older generation dies out, it will always be a factor. Since the younger generation is growing up in a much more multicultural environment, I think the future will be a lot brighter for politics that is race-blind. But right now it's not the case.

The thing to keep in mind is that Obama's race can work two ways: in the South, his African-American supporters could push him over the top against McCain in some of the states that usually don't go blue.

Distributorcap said...

john

you didnt tell me who got booted off Idol

that is my new focus
a lot less stressful